Brent crude remains just under $90 a barrel. That’s the low end of high, not the meaningful decline we saw during the memorandum-of-understanding period. Iran is at an impasse. Regime leaders have reportedly been doxxed, people aren’t getting paid because the country can’t move oil, and there are rumors that the supreme leader may be dead. If Iran’s leverage since the revolution was “Don’t interact with us or we’ll derail the world economy and set the region on fire,” that doesn’t appear to have happened. Its proxies haven’t ignited the region, its oil isn’t moving normally, and it may now be operating without a supreme leader.

Politically, though, this has been an absolute disaster for Trump. It fractured his right flank and gave independent voters permission to say, “No, this guy sucks. He lied.” He called himself the president of peace, and now we’ve been at war with Iran for six months. Iran’s goal is to make Trump pay in the midterms, and Trump is doing a lot to help. He doesn’t have tremendous instincts for winning races when he isn’t on the ballot.

The administration may be looking to Venezuela for relief. It’s negotiating with the interim government for American ownership stakes in more than a dozen productive oil fields holding about 90 billion barrels of proven reserves. Venezuela would receive investment and additional revenue while American and other private firms rebuilt production. Is this energy security or an extraordinary American claim on another country’s resources? To quote the Stephen A. Smith meme: We don’t care. At least not when it comes to the one thing that matters in American politics — gas prices.

So go gas prices, so goes the economy, inflation, and probably the midterms. Trump’s original pitch was that tariffs might create instability and make foreign goods more expensive, but Americans could count on cheaper energy. A funny thing happened on the way to Tehran, and that got screwed up. More Venezuelan oil could push prices down and make it easier to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve without buying expensive crude. It would also almost certainly benefit the oil companies that remain furious about Hugo Chávez taking their equipment.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:02:14 - Trade War with Canada

00:34:44 - Update

00:36:49 - Iran

00:42:19 - Venezuelan Oil

00:45:13 - 9/11 Trial

00:47:25 - Evan Scrimshaw’s Midterm Picks

01:25:03 - NFL

01:48:34 - Wrap-up

Darlene Graham proved me wrong in South Carolina, defeating Ralph Norman 52.5 percent to 47.5 percent. I thought Norman had the momentum and that Graham wasn’t built for the low-propensity turnout operation a special election requires. Instead, Donald Trump came to South Carolina, held a tele-rally, and MAGA Inc. poured nearly $1 million into the race when it mattered. Granted, it was only a five-point win in a special election where Trump remains very popular, but I was loud wrong. I thought I was going to be the clever boy calling her loss, and I got smoked like a pancake.

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The problem is that Darlene has run an objectively bad campaign, even though the campaign she needed wasn’t difficult. Make it all about Lindsey. South Carolina Republicans had already chosen him, and nobody knew him like his sister. She could’ve presented herself as a caretaker working with his staff to finish the agenda he spent his life building. Every sentence should’ve begun or ended with “Lindsey told me” or “This is what Lindsey would’ve wanted.” Erase the Darlene.

Instead, she’s tried to establish the Darlene show. She’s drawn distinctions between Lindsey’s foreign-policy focus and her domestic priorities, but if she’s going to be anything other than Lindsey’s caretaker, voters don’t know her. That choice also makes every piece of her own record fair game. Then she delivered one of the biggest gaffes of the midterms when Greta Van Susteren gave her a question about China and she absolutely gagged on it. You’ve got to know “China bad.” It’s a two-word answer. She hasn’t done good; she’s done bad.

This is also a low, low, low, low, low-turnout runoff. Dozens of people are going to vote, and the people who show up in elections like this are usually the most energized. The most energized South Carolina Republicans aren’t necessarily Lindsey Graham voters. Many of them are the people who hated Lindsey Graham and wanted a more purebred MAGA senator. Darlene has the Graham name, but the name was already controversial within the party. Her hedge is Trump. The question is whether Trump can still get those voters out.

Trump’s average approval is 39.5 percent, with 57.2 percent disapproving. Stinky, bad, awful. If you’re in the low 40s, it’s bad. If you’re in the high 30s, it’s terrible. Darlene says she’s focused on domestic policy, the economy, and kitchen-table issues, but Trump’s economic numbers are even worse: 35.9 percent approve and 60.9 percent disapprove. That’s a 25-point spread. Donald Trump has been the wind beneath her wings, but I don’t know what kind of draft that endorsement creates anymore, even in deep-red South Carolina.

MAGA Inc. has $404 million on hand but spent only $2.3 million through July before dumping nearly $1 million into this runoff at the last minute. A huge cash advantage works best when you define people early, not when you wait until the final days. The energy and the issues are with Democrats, while two supposed Republican advantages — money and redistricting — don’t look like advantages right now. If Trump’s endorsement and a last-minute MAGA Inc. spending spree can’t save Lindsey Graham’s sister in South Carolina, that’s a bad sign for Republicans far beyond this runoff.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:04:17 - College Sports Bill

00:08:01 - Darlene Graham

00:25:20 - Canada

00:30:45 - Iran

00:34:18 - Mail-in Voting

00:37:57 - Interview with Eric Geller

01:09:00 - Wrap-up

Canada is in a weaker economic position, so the Trump administration believes it can be ruthless and demand more. But there’s an argument that you shouldn’t be so ruthless with your best friends, and America and Canada should be very close because we share so much.

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Scenario one is Ah, Nevertheless: Republicans retain both the House and Senate. They can lose two House seats and still hold 218, and a few candidate-specific wins, redrawn districts, or polling errors could get them there. The Senate is already a hard climb for Democrats, and all Trump has done his entire career is surprise people. But pretty much everything argues against this. The president’s party usually loses seats in the midterms, Trump’s approval and cost-of-living numbers stink on ice, and the battlefield is expanding into Republican territory. If the GOP holds both chambers, the story won’t be that Trump beat the odds. It’ll be that he is the odds. You don’t bet against Big Donny T.

Scenario two is WINO — Win in Name Only: Democrats win the House by fewer than 10 seats while Republicans retain the Senate. This is, in my view, the most likely scenario as of August. Democrats get Speaker Hakeem Jeffries, control of the legislative agenda, committee gavels, subpoena power, and the ability to impeach by a simple majority. But with a tiny margin, every ideological bloc becomes a potential veto point. A handful of members could threaten Jeffries’ speakership or stop legislation, and impeachment would be ceremonial without the Senate. Republicans keep the brake pedal while their senators become less Trump-aligned as his duck gets lamer. Democrats win the gavel, Republicans keep the brake pedal, and Jeffries ultimately pays the bill.

Scenario three is My Blue Heaven: Democrats win the House by more than 10 seats and take the Senate, giving them at least 223 House seats and 51 Democratic-aligned senators. Trump’s approval would need to remain in the low-to-mid-30s, affordability would need to dominate, and Democratic enthusiasm would have to survive the transition from the primaries to November. Progressives and the establishment would need to mend their fences and say, “Onward, onward, onward.” The Senate table would have to be almost entirely clean, including pickups in Alaska, Iowa, and Maine, plus a Michigan hold with Abdul El-Sayed.

Ah, Nevertheless would mean Trump wriggled out of it yet again and avoided impeachment. WINO would produce a loud, hectic Democratic House that can investigate and pass bills but can’t get much through the Senate. My Blue Heaven would give Democrats control of both chambers, allowing them to send legislation to Trump, multiply the investigations, and begin asking whether they have the votes to eliminate the filibuster.

Those are the three paths in front of us: Republicans hold, the parties split power narrowly, or Democrats get their deliverance. It’s a multi-versal ride that will only get clearer as we approach November.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:04:19 - Midterms Scenarios Revealed

00:23:35 - Bernie Endorses Angie Nixon

00:27:43 - National Debt

00:31:01 - Iran

00:35:16 - Kirk Bado on the Midterms

01:06:41 - Wrap-up

Alexander Vindman is an absolute embarrassment. Nixon would be Florida’s first Black senator, but she’s not going to be. This seat is done and dusted. Congratulations to Ashley Moody on six more years in the Senate.

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Florida’s newly redrawn 22nd District has seven Republicans competing for what’ll likely be a safe Republican seat. It’s also where I finally found my line on AI-generated political content. A website attacking Belinda Keiser includes an AI image depicting her having sex with Jeffrey Epstein. I’ve had a lot of tolerance for campaigns turning metaphors and fantasies into images, but I guess my line in the sand is a candidate getting piped by Jeffrey Epstein. Now we know. David Burke appeared to be surging at the end, but there isn’t much reliable polling.

The race I’m watching most closely is Florida’s 7th District, where Corey Mills is seeking a third term against former television sports reporter Ryan Elijah. To say Mills is scandal-plagued is to say Pinocchio is only helping Monstro’s dental health, babe. Mills has faced allegations involving two former girlfriends, while the House Ethics Committee is examining possible sexual misconduct, inaccurate financial disclosures, campaign-finance violations, improper gifts, special favors tied to his office, and misuse of congressional resources. He denies wrongdoing. Sparse public polling suggests he could lose, and Republicans in Washington are desperately hoping he does.

In Florida’s 20th District, redistricting pushed Debbie Wasserman Schultz into a traditionally Black seat. She’s running against former representative Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, Dale Holness, Elijah Manley, and Uncle Luke himself, Luther Campbell. With four Black candidates dividing the vote and no runoff in Florida primaries, Wasserman Schultz only needs a plurality. I think she’ll win. Let the sun shine down and reveal the truth as Florida votes — and start a stopwatch when the polls close, because these races will probably be called within about 90 minutes. Shocking how fast that can go. Just saying.

Congressional Democrats are preparing another war-powers challenge after Trump threatened to bomb Oman if it obstructs efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. They’ve been looking for another non-affordability way to hit Trump over Iran, and this is a good strategy. It’s a historically unpopular war, and they want to tie him to it every way they can. Meanwhile, the administration has paused construction of a border wall inside Big Bend National Park while CBP reviews the project. Not all border is created equal. Big Bend accounts for a small share of crossings, and there are easier, lighter ways to patrol an area where somebody might still have to walk for three days after crossing.

ABC has also filed a First Amendment lawsuit accusing the FCC of retaliating against the network for its editorial decisions. FCC Chairman Brendan Carr has threatened to revoke ABC’s license amid his fight with the network, particularly over Jimmy Kimmel’s comments about Charlie Kirk’s death. It’s not surprising that ABC is bringing a legal challenge, even if only as a predicate to any FCC action. If you’re ABC and the chairman of the FCC threatens your license, it would be malpractice not to take him seriously and prepare in case it actually happens.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:04:08 - Florida Races

00:20:49 - Oman

00:25:47 - Border Wall

00:28:02 - ABC Sues FCC

00:29:35 - Brian Brushwood on the Nuances of Texas’ Electorate

01:25:20 - Wrap-up

We’re living in an age of polarization, so Blanche’s answers will mean whatever people already want them to mean. If you’re inclined to take him at face value, he’ll do his best to remain independent. If you’re suspicious, he’s Pinocchio dancing for Papa Trump.

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Two names surfaced, and one was Kari Lake. But there’s somebody else who might be downright Trumpian in his ability to identify wedge-issue news stories and put the right spin on them: Spencer Pratt.

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What you’re probably going to hear about is the polling. After the polls wildly overestimated Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, the final State Navigate poll had Hong at 44 percent and Crowley at 22 percent — a 22-point Hong lead. Instead, Crowley won by 0.4 percent. That’s a 22.4-point miss on the margin. Jeez Louise. Hong’s vote share wasn’t wildly off; the poll totally underestimated Crowley. The question is why these polls keep overrepresenting progressive-leaning voters.

One theory is that more polls are using online surveys. The old problem with landline calls was that they overrepresented boomers because nobody under 60 had a landline. Nobody answers an unfamiliar number on a cellphone, so that leaves online responses, which might overrepresent progressives. It’s also worth noting that the DSA endorsed Hong, but Bernie Sanders and AOC didn’t. Pure DSA play isn’t good enough to get you over the hump, even in a Democratic primary. Bernie and AOC provide some wiggle room away from the DSA’s baggage.

Next door, Minnesota Democrats delivered a decisive progressive victory as Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan defeated Representative Angie Craig by 20 points for the open Senate nomination. Flanagan overcame a major spending disadvantage after attacking Craig’s immigration record, particularly her 2025 vote expanding ICE authority. Republicans nominated former NFL reporter Michele Tafoya, but barring huge changes in the race, Flanagan is going to be Minnesota’s next senator. In the governor’s race, Amy Klobuchar easily secured the Democratic nomination, while state House speaker Lisa Demuth defeated Trump-backed My Pillow founder Mike Lindell. Please raise your combs in celebration.

South Carolina’s emergency election to replace Lindsey Graham is headed to an August 25 runoff between interim senator Darlene Graham and Representative Ralph Norman. Graham, Lindsey’s sister and Trump’s endorsed candidate, finished first with 32.7 percent. Norman took the second spot with 24.6 percent, narrowly eliminating Representative Russell Fry. The vote was pretty split, and I don’t know whether Darlene has the juice to keep Norman off. A lot of Republicans were already angry that she decided to seek the seat permanently instead of serving as a placeholder. Ralph Norman has a real shot. The kiss of death for Darlene would be the double endorsement — a double Trump endorsement.

Former Hartford mayor Luke Bronin also defeated 14-term Democratic representative John Larson, 54 percent to 33 percent. Larson, 78, became the seventh House Democrat defeated in a primary this cycle, while Governor Ned Lamont won renomination. In Alabama, Trump-endorsed Republican Rhett Marques advanced to face Democratic representative Shomari Figures in the redrawn Second District, where the Black voting-age population was reduced from 48 percent to 40 percent.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:05:42 - Tuesday Primary Results

00:16:18 - Exploring Disney’s America with Andrew Heaton

01:19:36 - Wrap-up

Kamala Harris endorsed El-Sayed, Pete Buttigieg held an event for him, and Democrats are trying to build the unity movement they’ll need around a progressive nominee. Bernie and AOC put their own names and clout behind El-Sayed, and they’re going to be front and center. But progressives also have to square an interesting circle: If they don’t want private money involved in elections, what do they do today? If refusing the money means getting outspent 50 or 60 to one, does accepting it make sense? And legally, a candidate can’t stop a super PAC from spending money to elect them.

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It looks like McConnell’s team desperately wanted to make it to the August recess, when the story could disappear from the headlines for more than a month. Andy Beshear, Kentucky’s Democratic governor and a likely presidential candidate, has kept the story alive because fighting McConnell is the war available to him.

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The polling miss is the polling miss. Congressional polling is never the most reliable. What’s strategically telling is that much of the expectation for a blowout came from El-Sayed’s own campaign, which released internal polling showing him ahead by 15 points. That obviously didn’t happen. Can you question the wisdom of releasing those numbers? You can. You can question that wisdom.

I still got my prediction wrong. I picked Stevens by five, so allow me to eat the mistakes. My prediction was closer to the final result than El-Sayed’s internal polls, but a loss is still a loss. I believed Mallory McMorrow’s female voting bloc would break more heavily for Stevens. I said from the beginning that McMorrow would decide this race; I just didn’t realize it would be her ghost bridging the gap between the other two candidates.

El-Sayed started this three-way dance as the owner of the progressive lane, and he owned the issues that mattered in Michigan. It didn’t matter how folksy the Stevens campaign tried to make her. El-Sayed won, the establishment lost, and progressives deserve to celebrate. Raise a PBR and let your tears stain your unused college degree. Progressive listeners can dance on my shame because they’ve earned it.

But the lesson for progressives is the opposite of what it was on The Real World: They need to stop getting real and start getting polite. Their movement isn’t overwhelming. I don’t care how fired up Michigan is about Israel, Medicare for All, or any other progressive policy. El-Sayed needs Haley Stevens voters if he’s going to defeat Mike Rogers. He needs to reach out and say, “Let’s stick it to ‘em… together,” because progressives aren’t going to get there by doing it exactly their way forever.

This is still a big day for progressives, but the final margin changes what it means. It wasn’t proof that they can squash the establishment on their own. It was proof that they can win a close primary and then immediately need the people they just beat. Celebrate the victory, take the lesson from the margin, and rerack for the general election.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro and Updated Michigan Thoughts

00:03:10 - Progressives and the Establishment

00:12:37 - Evan Scrimshaw on 2028 Democratic Primaries

01:18:44 - Wrap-up

Nobody knows exactly what the deal is. The rumors are that the center of the Strait of Hormuz would reopen, with some kind of maintenance fee paid into a regional network that wouldn’t explicitly be for Iran but wouldn’t exclude Iran. In exchange, the naval blockade would be lifted and Iran could sell oil. We’ll see what happens to Brent crude over the next week. Even if the international community views this as a weak deal, Democrats probably won’t highlight anything that makes prices go lower. Aside from the Israel hawks, everybody might just move on.

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I think there’s been a criminal lack of looking back at everything that happened during COVID. It was incredibly consequential and should be studied cold. Publicly available documents, emails, and Fauci’s diary seem to show that we funded gain-of-function research and that people didn’t want that to become public after the virus got out.

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El-Sayed has run a very good campaign, but he’s had trouble restabilizing since Stevens found her footing. His problem is explaining his progressive message to people who don’t automatically buy into it. You need to describe the what before the why. Start with the person who counted on a government check that didn’t come, then explain why it happened and where the money went. El-Sayed keeps starting with AIPAC and the quid pro quo because he’s still talking to progressives. Progressives understand that language, but everybody else might not.

The Stevens campaign wants to make El-Sayed the bully. She keeps pointing out that he makes fun of the way she talks, and she brought up his comment about putting an ogre’s head on a spike. That matters because El-Sayed needs the McMorrow women — voters who weren’t into Stevens but could be talked into a more progressive way of thinking. He’s going to ride and die on being a fighter, including his support for abolishing ICE. That’s authentic, but he’s more of a blunt instrument than Bernie Sanders or Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Stevens looked confident under the lights. El-Sayed didn’t look in command. My prediction: Stevens by five.

Trump, meanwhile, has asked the Supreme Court to revive parts of his executive order restricting mail voting before the November midterms. A federal judge blocked provisions directing agencies to build state citizenship lists and requiring the Postal Service to send mail ballots only to currently listed voters. I’m not personally for asking states to assemble these lists so close to an election, for the same reason I wasn’t for expanding mail voting during COVID. Anytime you’re expanding or restricting voting and changing the electorate, you’ve got to do it with some tender loving care.

Trump also met with Benjamin Netanyahu for the first time since the United States and Israel launched their joint air campaign against Iran. Iran was expected to dominate the meeting as Trump decides whether to resume large-scale strikes or give diplomacy more time. There’s visible friction: Trump doesn’t like Netanyahu publicly raising concerns about activity at Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain to pressure him, while Netanyahu wants to preserve military pressure. Their decision could determine whether this pause becomes a negotiating window or merely an intermission. Nobody knows what’s happening in Iran. There are only so many ways I can say it.

Michigan’s attorney general is also reviewing how a false allegation against Pete Buttigieg led authorities to separate him from his four-year-old twins. Officials acted on a vague tip before confirming the caller’s identity or credibility, and Michigan State Police later declared the allegation unfounded. Investigators found a Facebook post in which the apparent caller urged people not to vote for Buttigieg and referenced the accusation before contacting authorities. Emergency responses involving children need a hair trigger, but unsupported accusations can also become political intimidation. It’s ugly — really, really, really ugly.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:03:49 - Michigan

00:21:31 - Israel, Iran, and Ukraine

00:30:40 - Mayor Pete Swatted

00:34:22 - Interview with Howard Mortman

01:06:28 - Wrap-up

Trump remains extraordinarily popular within the Republican Party, with approval ratings somewhere in the mid-to-high 80s. But independents have never liked him less. Republicans might be able to turn out their voters, except those voters might not be excited, while the independents who helped decide the 2024 election have turned against Trump. Put everything in a blender, throw it on frappe, and inspect the results. Right now, I see a suicide slush of “I don’t know what.”

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There are a lot of signs that something is about to happen. Air traffic is moving, Israel is opening bomb shelters, hospitals are getting specific instructions, and skirmishes on the Iran-Iraq border might suggest American special forces will get involved. Trump has said Israel would quickly rejoin the fight if asked, but claims the United States could act alone. The B-1 launched from Britain can carry two dozen 2,000-pound bombs or dozens of cruise missiles. Its targets included Iranian military operations centers, maritime capabilities, aircraft hangars, drone storage, and logistics infrastructure.

Iran still has some ability to threaten shipping despite officials saying its military capability around Hormuz has been sharply degraded. On the other side of Saudi Arabia, the Houthis have attacked a Saudi shipping line and threatened a second critical energy route through the Red Sea at the Bab el-Mandeb.

I think this is on and poppin’. Either there’s some kind of détente that lets Trump kick the can past the midterms, or you’ve got to extract a pound of flesh from Iran. You’ve got to call their bluff and say: Look, whatever you think you can do, go ahead and do it.

I don’t think there are any coincidences in the Middle East. It’s a very transactional region, and I don’t think Saudi Arabia getting a nuclear deal is disconnected from what’s happening. My 360-degree view of Iran has always been predicated on the idea that both the region and the United States are looking to reshape the Middle East around Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel as the new powers, while the United States pivots to China. But if you’re going to do that, you’ve got to really degrade Iran.

I don’t know how you do it or what you can do. It certainly seems that the Trump administration believes bridges and power plants are what the IRGC really, really, really doesn’t want to lose. The more audacious military plans include storming an area where we believe Iran has nuclear material and taking it by force, seizing the coastline from which Iran is firing drones and missiles to ensure the Strait of Hormuz stays open, or seizing Kharg Island, where Iran exports its oil. I don’t know that Iran can function without the kind of money it gets from oil.

It’s very hard to follow this because you don’t really know what’s happening. I didn’t know why oil stayed as low as it did before, why it fell before the memorandum of understanding, or why it’s shooting up now. If it goes way up, how fast can it fall? I don’t know. I have no idea. But it looks like something is about to pop. In fact, it might already be happening by the time this podcast hits your feed.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:02:52 - Campaign Undertaker

00:13:42 - Iran Heats up

00:20:20 - Stock Trading Bill

00:21:57 - Midterm Polling

00:25:33 - Interview with Josh Jennings

01:22:51 - Wrap-up

This is a mess. No matter what you think of Iran, you’ve got to pay for it somehow. Pete Hegseth told senators that the Pentagon was running short of cash after estimating that the war had already cost $37.5 billion. John Thune has been noncommittal and doesn’t want to deal with a vote-arama that could force vulnerable Republicans to take tough votes so close to the election. I don’t know if that’s as important as it used to be. If you can’t message beyond a vote, then you’ve probably failed at messaging.

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Go back to the beginning of 2025, when Trump 2.0 very much was aligned. The coalition was locked in. The administration had momentum. USAID dismantled in a split second. The one big beautiful bill pushed over the finish line in record time. Again, the point isn’t that these were good things that happened. It’s that they kept happening. But no momentum is made to last forever. Maybe the coalition was always doomed to splinter. The cracks began to show as people were fired, as Kristi Noem and Pam Bondi went down for various different ICE shootings and Epstein, accelerating distrust and leaving Dan Bongino back on the radio airwaves. Either way, the drama that Trump 2.0 kept outside the tent has now fully moved back within it.

How do we know? Because they’re telling us.

Take the address that happened last Thursday night. We knew officials were fighting over how much information the president should share when he was speaking to America. Acting DNI Bill Pulte pushed for a more aggressive version, but senior White House aides intervened. Separate reports said the speech might have claimed that Georgia’s two Democratic senators were elected illegitimately because they both came in during the 2020 runoff. The final address didn’t go that far, meaning somebody pulled something back — or at least that’s what the reports would lead us to believe, which means somebody inside the administration is telling a reporter. The 24-minute speech eventually focused more on election interference and intelligence findings as a way to get to the idea that the Save America Act should be passed. But even that’s telling, because the speech was quickly swallowed by the news cycle. That’s another hallmark of Trump 1.0: a lot of sound and fury signifying nothing, or at least nothing that’s remembered more than 48 hours later.

The biggest Trump 1.0 tell is Iran. From the very beginning, the administration has said the Iran strategy has two hands. Marco Rubio and Pete Hegseth are the closed fist, the violence that will come down on the regime, while J.D. Vance, Jared Kushner, and Steve Witkoff are the open hand of diplomacy. If you want to make a deal on our terms, we’re always welcome. In the meantime, we’ll punch you in the face. Trump has actively encouraged a rivalry between Vance and Rubio, asking people all the time who they think should be the next president. And now the proxies of both men are in out-and-out war online.

Alex Bruesewitz is on the J.D. Vance side, making it a priority to talk about how much foreign influence, including Israel, is affecting the discourse. Meanwhile, Israel hawks, including Mark Levin and Ben Shapiro, are attacking Vance, saying he’s surrendering to Qatar and he’s mostly a socialist. The damage is falling most heavily on Vance because he’s become the face of diplomacy. If the memorandum of understanding had worked, he would’ve gotten the credit. Since there’s now a lot of violence happening in that region again, he gets the blame. Instead of all of this being part of one big rolling ball that is the Trump administration, we now have winners and losers, which means people inside that sphere are playing the game. Very Trump 1.0.

The reason this happens in both instances is, well, Big Chungus. Trump 2.0’s advantage was that the drama stayed outside the tent and the team inside was united. Now we’re getting a clearer view of exactly what the war behind closed doors looks like, and in my opinion, it goes hand in hand with priorities not being enacted. You hear a lot about the Save America Act, but it’s stalled and doesn’t have the votes to become law. Iran is different because the consequences are immediate. Trump has to show that either pressure or diplomacy can produce a successful end state. If neither path works, he’ll have made a very big bet without a clear conclusion, and he’ll have to define a win for himself even if it’s not very clear to the American people. We might already be in the lame-duck phase for Donald Trump, which may make all of these problems worse.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:03:44 - Trump 1.0

00:11:36 - Darlene Graham

00:16:05 - Reconciliation, Again, Again

00:19:38 - Andy Burnham

00:25:03 - Interview with Michael Cohen

01:13:55 - Wrap-up