The initit, now paused tariffs, so distorted the discussion that I think its becomeunderappreciated just how historically high the tariffs in place TODAY still are. The rise in China rates have essentially negated all the savings from the pause. Once supplied stock runs out end of may, early June, we are going to get smacked hard. But the data won't be available until July. The Yale budget lab has been doing real yoemens work keeping up with the changes.
Fast facts and estimates:
-Avg effective tariff rate (current): 25.6% (highest since 1800's)
Scoreboard instead of pep rally is a really good and accurate description.
The initit, now paused tariffs, so distorted the discussion that I think its becomeunderappreciated just how historically high the tariffs in place TODAY still are. The rise in China rates have essentially negated all the savings from the pause. Once supplied stock runs out end of may, early June, we are going to get smacked hard. But the data won't be available until July. The Yale budget lab has been doing real yoemens work keeping up with the changes.
Fast facts and estimates:
-Avg effective tariff rate (current): 25.6% (highest since 1800's)
- loss in household purchasing power $4900
- # fewer jobs, 770,000 in Q4
- majority of effect hits bottom 30-40%
-12% increase in cars short term
-2.6% increase in food short-term
-65% increase in clothes short term.
https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state-us-tariffs-april-15-2025