It's Election Eve! Selzer's Ominous Poll. Final Early Vote Totals.

PATREON REFUGEES! IF YOU HAVE NOT MOVED YOUR CREDIT CARD INFO TO SUBSTACK THIS IS YOUR LAST BONUS EPISODE! PLEASE SUBSCRIBE HERE!

The final polls are in.

VoteHub, which only uses A and B rated pollsters, has the race toight, like a tiger.

If you dare to venture into the world of Real Clear Politics you will find similar margins. Nationally, the race is essentially tied. This is terrible news for Harris if you subscribe to the idea of the Electoral College Bias, where Democrats have to poll three points (or more!) ahead of a Republican challenger to offset population heavy blue states that won’t determine the election.

And yet, herding discourse would have you believe that chickenshit pollsters terrified to underestimate Trump are instead overestimating him. This would mean Harris is likely leading by good margins not only nationally but also in the swing states.

Ryan James Girdusky

, as good of a poll reader as he is a guy who gets banned from CNN, has his run down of good news for either side.

VoteHub also has a good dashboard for early voting if you want to torture yourself. Every interview I have heard from the GOP side has been bullish on their early vote. They have (heretofore unheard of) leads in Nevada and North Carolina. Republicans believe they are also leading in Arizona and Georgia.

The only person anyone actually pays attention to for early vote analysis is Jon Ralston in Nevada. He believes the Democrats have their work cut out for them if they are going to be competitive in the state.

The R lead is 4 percent statewide, or just under 43,000 ballots. That’s 53 percent.

Almost 1.1 million votes have been posted. If turnout is 1.4 million, that means we are approaching 80 percent of the vote being in. I think it could be a little more, but it’s still a bit unclear with slow mail count.

So I’d say there are at least 300,000 more ballots out there, give or take.

Please read the rest of his work as he gets very granular. As of now he is estimating a R+4 environment in a state Donald Trump has never won.

Will that hold? I don’t know. If it does, what does it mean for the rest of the swing states?

Well I have a hard time believing Arizona goes blue if Nevada doesn’t. Both would likely vote Trump because of latinos. But you know where there are very few latinos?

Iowa.

Enter Ann Selzer who came in like a wrecking ball on Saturday night with a bombshell poll of Harris +3 in Iowa. If that is true, and there are plenty of reasons to doubt the oracle of Iowa on this, then I have a hard time believing that Trump can carry Wisconsin or Michigan which have similar demographics.

What a poetic end to Donald Trump if the man who inspired ten thousand “White Supremacy” think pieces is ultimately dispatched by electorates who are simply too Caucasian?

And so, it’s election eve… leave a tall glass of bourbon and several bullets out for Uncle Sam.