Worst Case Scenario For Helene Clean Up? Remember Katrina
Eye popping Union support for Trump
Trump’s swing state ground game called into question
Greg:
Does Hurricane Helene count as an Act of God (October Surprise), even though it was a major hurricane at the end of September?
The hurricane is not a scandal. A reaction that is deemed slow and uncaring is the scandal.
As I wrote in yesterday’s newsletter the best example of this would be the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and its impact on President George W. Bush's presidency.
For those who need a refresher.
Katrina struck the Gulf Coast in 2005, caused massive devastation, especially in New Orleans, largely due to the failure of the levee system. The federal government's slow response to the disaster, particularly FEMA's role, was widely criticized and it damaged George W. Bush’s presidency permanently.
Bush faced significant backlash for his administration's handling of the crisis. Public criticism intensified after he told FEMA Director Michael Brown he was doing a “heck of a job…” and his decision to fly over the disaster zone rather than visit on the ground.
Bush was already hovering around the low 40s as he entered his lame duck term. This event, compounded by the ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and a economic calamity in 2008 conspired to leave his approval rating in the low 30s by the time he left.
Katrina's aftermath exposed severe gaps in disaster preparedness and response at both state and federal levels. The delayed evacuation, the poor coordination between agencies, and the public health crises that followed the flooding were major points of contention.
And of course, we had the “George Bush doesn’t care about black people” moment from Kanye West.
So is this a liability for Kamala Harris? It sure could be.
First, it reminds the voter that she is currently in the sitting unpopular administration and not running as an insurgent.
Second, speed and efficiency in dealing with slow-motion disasters has not been a strong suit of the Biden administration. See: Afghanistan withdrawal, border, East Palestine train derailment, Gaza etc.
Third, Georgia and North Carolina are the hardest hit states. They are swing states. If Kamala wins either of them it is very hard for Trump to win. But it’s harder to vote for someone if you feel they didn’t help when you lost your house.
President Biden is handling criticism with his trademark distain to the press for asking a question about it.
Harris has realized she needs to project strength. She attended a FEMA briefing yesterday.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump visited Valdosta, Georgia to survey the damage.
Trump will do everything he can to paint the White House as ineffective, removed and uncaring. Biden will hope this goes away. But Harris is on the ballot now, how much will she dive into this?
Can she avoid doing a “heck of a job?”
Demographic Dance
I’ve enjoyed Harry Enten since the original (and best) incarnation of the FiveThirtyEight podcast. File away segments like this if Harris comes up short.
Emily
I’m a NC resident and I’ve been here since 2018 in law school and working as a real estate paralegal since 2019. I worked residential real estate during Covid and the rumors about people from LA, NY, DC, OH, etc. moving to NC were real from what I saw closing dozens maybe even estimating 30-40% of my closings were out of state. That’s off the top of my head, but I know it was a lot of closings, and my own sister moved here from DC recently. Most people I meet in Raleigh or Charlotte moved here from somewhere else, and most of those people will vote blue.
On the other hand, I’ve worked in commercial real estate since 2021 and those at my larger firm who are from NC and Republican say they won’t vote for Trump (or Mark Robison, lol). I believe them, too. I think they just won’t vote. So my prediction for NC is that the blue vote will be stronger than previous elections due to the increase in out of state voters that likely will vote blue and seem motivated to do so, and likely there will be a lack of Republican support, at least in areas like Raleigh. I’m sure the rural areas will still vote for Trump, so I guess it comes down to which of those groups are bigger and vote to determine who wins NC.
You know better than I, Emily. But I just don’t trust a blue North Carolina. Something about those tobacco fields…