Here’s the thing, Trump was polling nationally 4-5 pts better than 2020 and Harris was polling 2-3 pts worse than Biden-2020. It did not take a rocket scientist to predict Trump was favored here & that he had a really good shot at the popular vote as well as sweeping all 7 swing states. Carl failed because of massive left-wing bias to the extent that he couldn’t/didn’t want to see what the polls were showing & he excludes many pollsters he deems to be right wing biased like Rasmussen. Any rational analyst would’ve had this 50/50 at best for Harris. Any analyst that could take off their bias goggles, would’ve easily favored Trump 55-60%. Based on what the polling showed, even down to how Black men were voting and Hispanics, a normal rational forecast would’ve definitely favored Trump, but when your analysis only goes as deep as crunching the toplines of pollsters you deem to be acceptable to you, & ignoring everything else, including seismic demographic shifts in voting patterns, this is what you get. It’s called egg on your face.
I find the fine people of Poland very trustworthy thanks
Here’s the thing, Trump was polling nationally 4-5 pts better than 2020 and Harris was polling 2-3 pts worse than Biden-2020. It did not take a rocket scientist to predict Trump was favored here & that he had a really good shot at the popular vote as well as sweeping all 7 swing states. Carl failed because of massive left-wing bias to the extent that he couldn’t/didn’t want to see what the polls were showing & he excludes many pollsters he deems to be right wing biased like Rasmussen. Any rational analyst would’ve had this 50/50 at best for Harris. Any analyst that could take off their bias goggles, would’ve easily favored Trump 55-60%. Based on what the polling showed, even down to how Black men were voting and Hispanics, a normal rational forecast would’ve definitely favored Trump, but when your analysis only goes as deep as crunching the toplines of pollsters you deem to be acceptable to you, & ignoring everything else, including seismic demographic shifts in voting patterns, this is what you get. It’s called egg on your face.
Should we ever trust Carl Allen’s forecasting again when he gave Harris 67% odds of winning? Tune in to find out!!!
Just heard Ann Selzer retired after that Iowa poll miss (probably not bc of it)
Yoooooo! That’s wild.
If it wasn’t because of it it should have been